[AccessD] Future of Access?

Hi Susan

First, I wouldn't mind building that app in Access. Neither the amount
of data nor the count of users is very large. Given Access and Windows
(including Win3.11) have been here for 10 years, there's no reason to
believe they will not be at hand for another 10 years - somehow. That
leaves amble time for picking up the trend and in due time port the
app to whatever arising technology. If you really must you can today
easily find a computer running DOS and dBase III which indicates that
with zero maintenance you could count on a system running for 15
years. That may change but you could probably count on porting that
app two or three times only and still have satisfied users.

Second, I don't hate Microsoft. Access is an excellent product, so is
Windows 2000. The bad thing about MS is that they are not listening to
the customers but to their wallet; they are forcing "empty" upgrades
at big money often directly against the expressed wishes by the
customers. This means that every product - no matter which - could be
ceased by MS with short notice. If they invented an revolutionary
database engine they would not hesitate a second abandoning SQL Server
20xx telling you that you "just need to upgrade to your own advantage"
at a cost of course. And they force or cheat you to sign in on their
Passport servers for no good reason other than to get hold on you. This
is the true nature of MS. I see it in every detail of their acting and
behaviour and you can choose to live it - as I do with Access - or
stay off, because you have no chance to change it. Or put it the other
way: you cannot trust MS to evolve along a route that fits the
customers' needs. That's why I use the word unpredictable.

Therefor I gave the question a thought - is it possible to build an
app that will last for 30 years? Basically I don't think so, or
rather: I don't think it will be the optimum route to go.
But think about it; every IT student today learns Java. Java runs on
everything - from wristwatches to Macs to mainframes. If you have to,
you can today run an old Fortran or Cobol program - and I'm convinced
that Java will stay for longer than 30 years. You will, of course,
have smarter tools at that time like vocal designers or tools
controlled by eye movement or high level tools where you specify the
input and output and some desing rules and everything in between is
created automatically in a few seconds. A Jave Virtual Machine may
evolve into a single chip you stick on where you need it.

Regarding the database engine I think the relational model is so
proven that it will last for more than 30 years. Someday we will have
computers that fast that even massive amounts of flat data can be
searched in split seconds, but still, a relational model may be faster
returning the same results in milli- or microseconds. Given the sheer
amount of Oracle engines running around the World I'm convinced that
in 30 years you will have an Oracle 18 or some other thing where a
nice and decent upgrade route is possible. If not, a DB2 or DB4 will
be there ready to pick up the Oracle clients. Or vice versa.

Now, combine the commitment from BOTH Oracle and IBM to Java and you
have the answer.

This is not to say that we all should switch to Java - personally I
haven't programmed a single line in Java - and there are many
languages out there well fitted for many special purposes and few
projects have a 30 years life span.

/gustav


>> If you are thinking of keeping the same app and database engine alive
>> for 30 years I would go for Java and Oracle or DB2. Microsoft is indeed
>> unpredictable for a time span of this size.

> ===========Gustav, this is a sincere question -- not meant to punch
> anyone -- but what makes you think anyone will be anymore predictable than
> MS? In 30 years, relational storage as we know it may be archaic
> technology -- that's a long long time to fuss at MS for not producing what
> it's producing now.

> I know MS is everyone's favorite "we love to hate..." and I don't have a lot
> of practical experience with anything other than MS, but if the news I read
> is to be believed, I don't see that IMB or Oracle are any better ... they're
> all just trying to keep up with the technology demands.

> I don't know nothing about birthing babies... but data warehousing really
> seems to be the trend, and if I had money, I'd lay a bet that in 30 years,
> no one but desktop users and companies that refuse to change will be using
> relational systems. That's just my bet, but ...

> As to the actual question -- I don't think anyone's company should expect
> them to know the trends of the future -- but building a model that's
> flexible and easily adaptable to the business trends and growth would be, in
> my mind, more efficient than producing a plan that points the future in
> specific directions. As long as the relational database is sound, I see no
> reason why it shouldn't upgrade to anything the technology future should
> throw at us... so in that respect, I'm not sure the future "plan" is as
> important as the soundness of the application right now.

> Sorry... I'm not picking on you Gustav and you responded well, I just have
> to disagree that any product is predictable in a 30 year time frame.

> Susan  H.