Rocky Smolin at Beach Access Software
rockysmolin at bchacc.com
Wed Oct 24 16:29:04 CDT 2007
I don't find that the information is wild or irrational. There's no panic here. I believe you'll hear reports in the coming days and weeks about how orderly and effective the evacuations proceeded, how the shelters were set up and run efficiently, and although there were some problems in fighting the fires, how could there not be, overall I think the operation will be judged very successful. I personally had no problem leaving when the order came. I couldn't go outside without a mask and goggles, couldn't see to the end of the street for the smoke, was standing in a 20-40 mph wind, and directly upwind was a fire racing towards Del Mar. If you look at a map of the fire burn area you can see how unpredictable the progress of a fire is. It can turn in a minute based on the shifting winds or even the wind created by the fire itself. Evacuating folks in a wide margin around a fire seems prudent. I know lots of people who were evacuated. Haven't heard a single complaint yet. And we're being flooded with good minute to minute information. There will also be lots of reporting about the things that went wrong - makes for good press. By these reports everyone will be judged to be a bumbling, shortsighted, incompetent fool. You'll just have to read up on it and judge for yourself. What was your son's experience with the information and his evacuation? And how long can we get away with this thread before the moderators pinch us? Rocky -----Original Message----- From: accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com [mailto:accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Tina Norris Fields Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2007 2:12 PM To: Access Developers discussion and problem solving Subject: Re: [AccessD] Perspective on So Cal fires 2007 Hi Rocky and Greg, My son also lives out there. He and his family were evacuated from La Mesa and are "camping out" for the duration at his place of business, which is right near the ocean. I am glad for my son's family's safety and for yours. I am dismayed to have the sort of wild-eyed disinformation that Greg refers to being spread and causing panic. Is there anything we can do to help promote rational thinking? Kindest regards, Tina Rocky Smolin at Beach Access Software wrote: > What part of town do you live in? > > Rocky > > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com > [mailto:accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Greg > Worthey > Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2007 1:14 PM > To: accessd at databaseadvisors.com > Subject: [AccessD] Perspective on So Cal fires 2007 > > I live in san diego. > > Facts on the So Cal fires: > - has affected about 640 square miles (410,000 acres) so far. > - 1,000,000 people have been forcibly evacuated (last number I heard > for San Diego county was 513,000, yesterday) > - most of those people were ordered to leave by an automated > recording, several miles in advance of any possible fire path. This > "perfect storm", in fact, came nowhere near 99% of their homes. > - 1,250 homes have been destroyed; half that from the 2003 fires > - information about the size and location of the fires remains wildly > fuzzy at best. Best mapped info is here: > http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/kml/conus.kmz (note: you need google > earth) > - while a million people are forced to sit in parking lots and > auditoriums (as if panic were called for), only about 1000 people in > all of so cal are fighting fires (as if no one could help) > - Planes were scooping water from the pacific ocean to drop on Malibu, > tout suite, by early Monday morning. As of Wednesday morning, > officials are still TALKING about doing the same here. It has nothing > to do with wind conditions; same lie they used 4 years ago. > > > While it's depicted on the news as a wild inferno racing to wipe out > the western seaboard, the reality is that it's mostly low brush fires > in scantly covered (semi-desert) unpopulated areas. It's a tragedy for > wildlife, but mostly it's just insane overreaction (and underreaction) > re people. The news picks the most impressive clips (i.e. a house or > patch of trees in inferno), rather than the prevalent lowscale desert > brush fire, and loops that image over and over. Most of the 1,000,000 > people evacuated were in no danger at all. > > Most of the 1200 houses were randomly hit (i.e. one destroyed, while > neighbors were untouched). This indicates that in many cases a person > with a garden hose could have put out the incipient fires on the spot, > before they consumed anything and grew. Not in all cases, of course, > but when an ember hits, it's going to start a SMALL fire, and a quick > garden hose can put it out (whereas a firetruck hours later can only > try to calm the all-consuming inferno). > > So not only did this new "reverse 911 system" massively inconvenience > and frighten a MILLION people, and nearly shut down the whole county, > it also removed all witnesses to small brush fires becoming infernos > due to the fact that no one was there to do the least thing to prevent > spreading to big fuel (ie. trees and houses). > > Insanity. Kind of like dutifully confiscating toothpaste and nail > clippers, while allowing 75% of bombs through airport security. > > -- > AccessD mailing list > AccessD at databaseadvisors.com > http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/accessd > Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com > > No virus found in this incoming message. > Checked by AVG Free Edition. > Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.15.6/1086 - Release Date: > 10/22/2007 > 7:57 PM > > > -- AccessD mailing list AccessD at databaseadvisors.com http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/accessd Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com No virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.15.6/1086 - Release Date: 10/22/2007 7:57 PM