[AccessD] Perspective on So Cal fires 2007

Rocky Smolin at Beach Access Software rockysmolin at bchacc.com
Wed Oct 24 23:21:13 CDT 2007


Well, everybody has only their personal experience.  So everybody sees it
differently.   

Rocky



 	
	

-----Original Message-----
From: accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
[mailto:accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Tina Norris
Fields
Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2007 7:44 PM
To: Access Developers discussion and problem solving
Subject: Re: [AccessD] Perspective on So Cal fires 2007

Hi Rocky,

My son Doug said that the smoke was a real factor.  I don't think he has a
problem, either, with leaving the house until it is safe to come back.

My response to Greg took his information at face value.  I am not on the
scene and cannot judge.  From what you and John Colby have since explained,
I agree that the measures taken are rational.

I want all of you, my friends and my family, to be safe and to get through
this very scary fire.

Kindest regards,
Tina

Rocky Smolin at Beach Access Software wrote:
> I don't find that the information is wild or irrational.  There's no 
> panic here.  I believe you'll hear reports in the coming days and 
> weeks about how orderly and effective the evacuations proceeded, how 
> the shelters were set up and run efficiently, and although there were 
> some problems in fighting the fires, how could there not be, overall I 
> think the operation will be judged very successful.
>
> I personally had no problem leaving when the order came.  I couldn't 
> go outside without a mask and goggles, couldn't see to the end of the 
> street for the smoke, was standing in a 20-40 mph wind, and directly
upwind was a
> fire racing towards Del Mar.    If you look at a map of the fire burn area
> you can see how unpredictable the progress of a fire is.  It can turn 
> in a minute based on the shifting winds or even the wind created by 
> the fire itself.  Evacuating folks in a wide margin around a fire seems
prudent.
>
> I know lots of people who were evacuated.  Haven't heard a single 
> complaint yet.  And we're being flooded with good minute to minute
information.
>
> There will also be lots of reporting about the things that went wrong 
> - makes for good press.  By these reports everyone will be judged to 
> be a bumbling, shortsighted, incompetent fool.  You'll just have to 
> read up on it and judge for yourself.
>
> What was your son's experience with the information and his evacuation?  
>
> And how long can we get away with this thread before the moderators 
> pinch us?
>
> Rocky
>
>  	
> 	
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
> [mailto:accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Tina Norris 
> Fields
> Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2007 2:12 PM
> To: Access Developers discussion and problem solving
> Subject: Re: [AccessD] Perspective on So Cal fires 2007
>
> Hi Rocky and Greg,
> My son also lives out there.  He and his family were evacuated from La 
> Mesa and are "camping out" for the duration at his place of business, 
> which is right near the ocean.  I am glad for my son's family's safety and
for yours.
> I am dismayed to have the sort of wild-eyed disinformation that Greg 
> refers to being spread and causing panic.  Is there anything we can do 
> to help promote rational thinking?
> Kindest regards,
> Tina
>
> Rocky Smolin at Beach Access Software wrote:
>   
>> What part of town do you live in?
>>
>> Rocky
>>  
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>  	
>> 	
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
>> [mailto:accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Greg 
>> Worthey
>> Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2007 1:14 PM
>> To: accessd at databaseadvisors.com
>> Subject: [AccessD] Perspective on So Cal fires 2007
>>
>> I live in san diego.
>>
>> Facts on the So Cal fires:
>> - has affected about 640 square miles (410,000 acres) so far. 
>> - 1,000,000 people have been forcibly evacuated (last number I heard 
>> for San Diego county was 513,000, yesterday)
>> - most of those people were ordered to leave by an automated 
>> recording, several miles in advance of any possible fire path. This 
>> "perfect storm", in fact, came nowhere near 99% of their homes.
>> - 1,250 homes have been destroyed; half that from the 2003 fires
>> - information about the size and location of the fires remains wildly 
>> fuzzy at best. Best mapped info is here:
>> http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/kml/conus.kmz (note: you need google
>> earth)
>> - while a million people are forced to sit in parking lots and 
>> auditoriums (as if panic were called for), only about 1000 people in 
>> all of so cal are fighting fires (as if no one could help)
>> - Planes were scooping water from the pacific ocean to drop on 
>> Malibu, tout suite, by early Monday morning. As of Wednesday morning, 
>> officials are still TALKING about doing the same here. It has nothing 
>> to do with wind conditions; same lie they used 4 years ago.
>>
>>
>> While it's depicted on the news as a wild inferno racing to wipe out 
>> the western seaboard, the reality is that it's mostly low brush fires 
>> in scantly covered (semi-desert) unpopulated areas. It's a tragedy 
>> for wildlife, but mostly it's just insane overreaction (and 
>> underreaction) re people. The news picks the most impressive clips 
>> (i.e. a house or patch of trees in inferno), rather than the 
>> prevalent lowscale desert brush fire, and loops that image over and 
>> over. Most of the 1,000,000 people evacuated were in no danger at all.
>>
>> Most of the 1200 houses were randomly hit (i.e. one destroyed, while 
>> neighbors were untouched). This indicates that in many cases a person 
>> with a garden hose could have put out the incipient fires on the 
>> spot, before they consumed anything and grew. Not in all cases, of 
>> course, but when an ember hits, it's going to start a SMALL fire, and 
>> a quick garden hose can put it out (whereas a firetruck hours later 
>> can only try to calm the all-consuming inferno).
>>
>> So not only did this new "reverse 911 system" massively inconvenience 
>> and frighten a MILLION people, and nearly shut down the whole county, 
>> it also removed all witnesses to small brush fires becoming infernos 
>> due to the fact that no one was there to do the least thing to 
>> prevent spreading to big fuel (ie. trees and houses).
>>
>> Insanity. Kind of like dutifully confiscating toothpaste and nail 
>> clippers, while allowing 75% of bombs through airport security.
>>
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