Greg Worthey
greg at worthey.com
Thu Oct 25 11:30:18 CDT 2007
Rocky, To kick a million people from their homes when less than 1% were near any actual danger, I call that panic. Orderly panic, even cheerful panic, but panic nonetheless. The largest evacuation in California history. It sounds like you were uncomfortable with the air quality, anxious to leave, and didn't need an order. I support your right to evacuate any time you wish. But if fire is several miles from me, you would support my right to remain a vigilent non-refugee, right? Looking at the updating map that I linked before -- http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/kml/conus.kmz (note: you need google earth)... The closest that fire came to del mar--and most of the evac'd areas--was 6 miles. I've been watching the tv coverage most waking hours since early Monday morning, and they sure paint it like "fire racing"; a "wall of fire", "firestorm 2007", and showing ad nauseum only the spots of sensational inferno. In reality, the most any fire moved was a few miles per DAY, in the windiest mountain conditions. As for perspective, it took the news over 24 hours from start before they showed a rudimentary map of where the fires were. Every authority really seemed to not know exactly where the fires were, even days later, and not even recognize a problem in that. FIVE days later, they still show only these extremely vague colored maps which are misleading in many ways. 1) they color using a very broad brush, overstating area, 2) the maps are so grossly undetailed that they don't even label most cities, 3) they give no indication of fire strength or intensity or speed, and 4) they give no indication of populated areas (versus unpopulated areas with very little fuel). It's not easy to find the truthful detail I linked above, and after all this time, still nobody seems to notice the lack of clarity. That is scary to me. This was really really bad for wildlife. For people, it was 99% over-reaction. In both cases, there was massively insufficient useful response. I too have heard few complaints about the record-breaking needless upheaval and broad-brush sensationalist reporting. Kind of like nailclippers at the airport. It seems people can't recognize irrational excess and folly anymore; all too happy to relinquish anything (or everything) for any reason. Scares me much more than any fire. Where is the perspective!? I'm glad you and 99% of the million evacuees are unscathed and still with home & possessions Rocky. I just hope you'll get skeptical enough to notice how little was done to fight the fires. The firefighters are working absolutely insane hours, but there are so few of them! This same thing happened just 4 years ago. Shall we all evacuate en mass every 4 years, pretend it's the best that could be done, and skip the needed firefighters? People were screaming about the lack of water drops last time, and then too, water drops were plentiful in LA since days before anyone even noticed the lack here. And now from the induced shock of needlessly enforced mass-scale panic, it seems that everyone is too shellshocked to use critical thinking. What was needed here was NOT another database to force people from their homes (and the massive effort and expense to accommodate them), but rather some common sense (i.e. reserve firefighters, water-drop planes, and moderately precise information about where the fires were). We made all these mistakes (sans the million refugees) just 4 years ago. Greg Message: 12 Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2007 14:29:04 -0700 From: "Rocky Smolin at Beach Access Software" <rockysmolin at bchacc.com> Subject: Re: [AccessD] Perspective on So Cal fires 2007 To: "'Access Developers discussion and problem solving'" <accessd at databaseadvisors.com> Message-ID: <009201c81684$e75412c0$0301a8c0 at HAL9005> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" I don't find that the information is wild or irrational. There's no panic here. I believe you'll hear reports in the coming days and weeks about how orderly and effective the evacuations proceeded, how the shelters were set up and run efficiently, and although there were some problems in fighting the fires, how could there not be, overall I think the operation will be judged very successful. I personally had no problem leaving when the order came. I couldn't go outside without a mask and goggles, couldn't see to the end of the street for the smoke, was standing in a 20-40 mph wind, and directly upwind was a fire racing towards Del Mar. If you look at a map of the fire burn area you can see how unpredictable the progress of a fire is. It can turn in a minute based on the shifting winds or even the wind created by the fire itself. Evacuating folks in a wide margin around a fire seems prudent. I know lots of people who were evacuated. Haven't heard a single complaint yet. And we're being flooded with good minute to minute information. There will also be lots of reporting about the things that went wrong - makes for good press. By these reports everyone will be judged to be a bumbling, shortsighted, incompetent fool. You'll just have to read up on it and judge for yourself. ... Rocky > -----Original Message----- > From: accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com > [mailto:accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Greg > Worthey > Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2007 1:14 PM > To: accessd at databaseadvisors.com > Subject: [AccessD] Perspective on So Cal fires 2007 > > I live in san diego. > > Facts on the So Cal fires: > - has affected about 640 square miles (410,000 acres) so far. > - 1,000,000 people have been forcibly evacuated (last number I heard > for San Diego county was 513,000, yesterday) > - most of those people were ordered to leave by an automated > recording, several miles in advance of any possible fire path. This > "perfect storm", in fact, came nowhere near 99% of their homes. > - 1,250 homes have been destroyed; half that from the 2003 fires > - information about the size and location of the fires remains wildly > fuzzy at best. Best mapped info is here: > http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/kml/conus.kmz (note: you need google > earth) > - while a million people are forced to sit in parking lots and > auditoriums (as if panic were called for), only about 1000 people in > all of so cal are fighting fires (as if no one could help) > - Planes were scooping water from the pacific ocean to drop on Malibu, > tout suite, by early Monday morning. As of Wednesday morning, > officials are still TALKING about doing the same here. It has nothing > to do with wind conditions; same lie they used 4 years ago. > > > While it's depicted on the news as a wild inferno racing to wipe out > the western seaboard, the reality is that it's mostly low brush fires > in scantly covered (semi-desert) unpopulated areas. It's a tragedy for > wildlife, but mostly it's just insane overreaction (and underreaction) > re people. The news picks the most impressive clips (i.e. a house or > patch of trees in inferno), rather than the prevalent lowscale desert > brush fire, and loops that image over and over. Most of the 1,000,000 > people evacuated were in no danger at all. > > Most of the 1200 houses were randomly hit (i.e. one destroyed, while > neighbors were untouched). This indicates that in many cases a person > with a garden hose could have put out the incipient fires on the spot, > before they consumed anything and grew. Not in all cases, of course, > but when an ember hits, it's going to start a SMALL fire, and a quick > garden hose can put it out (whereas a firetruck hours later can only > try to calm the all-consuming inferno). > > So not only did this new "reverse 911 system" massively inconvenience > and frighten a MILLION people, and nearly shut down the whole county, > it also removed all witnesses to small brush fires becoming infernos > due to the fact that no one was there to do the least thing to prevent > spreading to big fuel (ie. trees and houses). > > Insanity. Kind of like dutifully confiscating toothpaste and nail > clippers, while allowing 75% of bombs through airport security. >