[AccessD] Intelligence subjugated to database computations

jwcolby jwcolby at colbyconsulting.com
Thu Oct 25 12:53:10 CDT 2007


ROTFL, indeed it is. 


John W. Colby
Colby Consulting
www.ColbyConsulting.com 
-----Original Message-----
From: accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
[mailto:accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Greg Worthey
Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2007 1:45 PM
To: accessd at databaseadvisors.com
Subject: Re: [AccessD] Intelligence subjugated to database computations

John,

Truly, your intellect is dizzying. Full of worst-possible assumptions,
reality aside. Please know that you're well in the majority.

"There are people trying to make these decisions based on information like
the current size of the fire, direction and speed of the wind, the current
location of fire crews, the number of trained firemen and equipment
available, evacuation routes, available police, available medics and other
trained emergency crews etc."
That's how it should be, yes. But alas your faith is unrequited. Five days
later, emergency officials still profess shocking ignorance, without
challenge/question. Shockingly understaffed firefighters. No water drops.
Most people are too in awe to question anything. Don't worry, your wild
worst-case imaginings and blind faith is fully in the majority.

"How many of the million evacuated would have been deaths just because they
were 90 years old and couldn't breath the smoke without dying.  How many of
the eight who actually died would have died anyway from just being there
breathing smoke?"
Well, I said five died, not 8, but they had been indoors with filtered air,
before the experts upheaved them. The damage overall is very scattered, and
very slight compared to the panic. 

"And precisely right, why not 10 million or 100 million?  ... How many
houses might burn to the ground because you did not evacuate a neighborhood
until too late and then the equipment could not get in because of traffic
jams of people trying to get out?"
Yeah, perhaps the whole western seaboard should evac, weeks instead of days
in advance, just in case. Airlift to Hawaii! (There were no traffic jams.)
You are normally level-headed, I assume.

"And how long should the men stay?  Until the fire is in the block behind
them?  Two blocks away?  A half mile away?"
People used to be entrusted with judgment; responsible for their own lives.
And people have cars--this is not a flood or a tornado, it's just fire.
Moves slow. Look at the map. Please don't panic John, everything will be ok.

"Of the 100 adult males in the blocks around you how many would DIE OF A
HEART ATTACK from ANY physical exertion?  So let's ask every adult male to
stick around and lose 1 out of 100 of them to heart attacks."
Uh, yeah. Let's lock them inside, and order them not to evacuate. It's
strange how the reactionary panic is supported from so far away, even when
you have less info than we do. Anyone is free to leave whenever they want;
the question is the necessity of forcing people and striking needless fear
and hardship. Reality is, the danger was relatively small and scant compared
to the evac. Believe me, there's no shortage of wild imaginations. Fox &
friends even suggested alqueda was responsible!

"I also assume that you were right down there offering your scientifically
proofed advice to the "idiots" running the show? ... "idiot decision"..."
You used the word idiots, not me. Why are you quoting things I didn't say?
You seem very panicked.

"I repeat, it is easy to second guess, and it is easy to ridicule the
efforts of those who are put on the spot to make those decisions."
I didn't ridicule. I criticized, and rationally. You are ridiculing. 

It's really scary how these sorts of things invoke blind faith in random
unknown officials, and delete the ability for rational conversation. Really,
you're not alone John. I just hope people can regain some common sense
before the next round of fires... or the next duct-tape frenzy... A database
is not the solution for everything.

Greg

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