Arthur Fuller
fuller.artful at gmail.com
Mon May 5 10:34:27 CDT 2008
Sorry for the double-post, but I'm in a need-to-know position. Has anyone done an app related to hedge-funds? I vaguely understand the concept but I want to know if anyone has a model to work from. Should puts and gets be in the same table or separate tables? How should progress be tracked (i.e. IBM moved from $1 to $1.14 in the last three months)? This is a whole new world to me and any advice will be appreciated. I don't even understand the rudiments. Given that I am a hedge participant, how often would I be likely to place a bet? Once an hour, once a day, once a week, once a quarter? Suppose that I am totally convinced that Sun+MySQL is a huge score, and that the current price is $1. I want to buy a million shares, but I also want to hedge my infatuation with a bet going the other way that says maybe I was over-enthused by her breasts or some other quality and I could be wrong, so then I bet that I sell those million shares at some price and the difference between them is what I'm risking, less the broker's fee. Do I have this correct or am I missing key components? I confess to complete ignorance about this stuff. I vaguely comprehend that a put and a get balance each other out with a margin, and that that's what the hedge-bet is all about. But I don't comprehend several other critical factors, such as: Suppose I bet that IBM will be worth $2 on June 1. Suppose that you think IBM will be worth $1 on June 1. Suppose that the current IBM price is $1.50. I'm already dizzy with this stuff. I propose to buy it as a future (I'm not even sure what that means, but I think I have that concept), so I spend no money today but I guarantee to purchase one share of IBM on May 31 so that I have it for sale on June 1. I have made an offer to purchase said one share at $1. Somebody accepts, then I am in a position to sell same at $2 on said day. I realize that the numbers that I have chosen above are unrealistic, but I am just trying to get to the basics of this. As I currently understand it, a hedge is a bet in both directions, and the point is to minimize the distance. I could be wrong, and it would only be the 1758th time in my life, but that's the feeling that I'm getting. You bet both ways, you subtract and that's your piece. Next layer: I'm doing this on behalf of somebody somewhere who has tossed a million Euros into the pile. Now I'm playing with those Euros and I'm guessing that Sun's acquisition of MySQL is a brilliant move and I want to party in this arena. So I plonk a Euro into this party and I'm confident that it will become 2 Euros in a week or month. To hedge this bet, I need to find someone who... I'm dizzy again... I don't understand this stuff... ok so to hedge this bet I need to find someone who doesn't believe that Sun's value will increase due to its acquisition of MySQL... but even that's incorrect. I need to find someone who doesn't believe the value of Sun's shares will increase as much as I think they will. Is all this correct or even close? I'm in a whole new universe here and I have no idea whether my perceptions are accurate or woefully amiss. I know that these lists are mostly about code but this is vaguely related to code, so please allow this off-topic question. A.