[dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem

On 25 Aug 2005 at 22:44, John W. Colby wrote:

> The logic SOUNDS good but is screwy.  Each door has a 1 in 3 chance of being
> a winner.  Eliminate one door and each door has a 1 in 2 chance of being a
> winner.  It matters not whether the third door is eliminated during the game
> or before the game starts.
> 
> And Arthur, while your door just increased from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2, so did the
> other door.  It matters not whether you switch or whether you stay, you have
> a 50/50 chance of winning.  There is no particular reason to switch, but you
> don't affect your odds in the slightest by switching.  Pick a door (of the
> two remaining), any door, and you have a 50/50 chance.
> 

Bzzt!

Next?

<g>
-- 
Stuart