[dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem

ok, but you changed the whole game.
first game was select one out of 3
second game is select one out of two

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Scott Marcus" <marcus at tsstech.com>
To: "Discussion of Hardware and Software issues" <dba-tech at databaseadvisors.com>
Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 5:33 PM
Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem


>I have not changed the rules. In the original case your winning
> percentage out of 1000 picks would be close to 66.66666...%
>
> Introducing the second person and their chances depends on if they have
> prior knowledge.
>
> Scott Marcus
> IT Programmer
> TSS Technologies Inc.
> www.tss.com
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
> [mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Lembit
> Soobik
> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 11:24 AM
> To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues
> Subject: Re: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem
>
> I see what you mean, but thing is that you have changed the rules during
> the
> game.
> now assume after you revealed the one non-winning door
> a third person comes in
> what are his chances to select the winning door from the two which are
> left
> over?
>
> Lembit
>
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Scott Marcus" <marcus at tsstech.com>
> To: "Discussion of Hardware and Software issues"
> <dba-tech at databaseadvisors.com>
> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 5:00 PM
> Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem
>
>
>> When you originally picked the door, you had a 1/3 chance that the
> door
>> was the winning door. If the host reveals a non-winning door that
> isn't
>> the door you picked, that door you picked still has only a 1/3 chance
> of
>> being correct.
>>
>> Lembit, lets play a game. Pick a number between 1 and 1,000,000. Only
>> one number will be a winning number. After you pick your number, I'm
>> gonna reveal 999,998 doors as non-winning doors so that only your door
>> and one other door remains (of which one is the winning door). Are
> your
>> chances still 50/50?
>>
>> So really pick a number. I'll have a third party monitor the winning
>> number so that no cheating can be involved. We'll do this 1000 times
> and
>> I bet you that if you switch doors that you will win way more than 50%
>> of the time (it will be very close to if not 100% of the time).
>>
>> Scott Marcus
>> IT Programmer
>> TSS Technologies Inc.
>> www.tss.com
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
>> [mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Lembit
>> Soobik
>> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 10:45 AM
>> To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues
>> Subject: Re: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem
>>
>> which leaves one winning and one non-winning door
>> and since you do not know which one the winning door is,
>> you have a 1 out of 2 chance.
>>
>> The host has simply changed the game from 1 out of 3 to 1 out of two
>> the new situation is not dependent on your previous choice.
>>
>> how could your making a choice at the beginning change the situation
>> after the
>> 3rd door was removed?
>>
>> Lembit
>>
>> ----- Original Message ----- 
>> From: "Scott Marcus" <marcus at tsstech.com>
>> To: "Discussion of Hardware and Software issues"
>> <dba-tech at databaseadvisors.com>
>> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 4:36 PM
>> Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem
>>
>>
>>> John,
>>>
>>> The problem was stated originally that the host revealed a
> non-winning
>>> door.
>>>
>>> Scott Marcus
>>> IT Programmer
>>> TSS Technologies Inc.
>>> www.tss.com
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> dba-Tech mailing list
>>> dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com
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>>>
>>>
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>>
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