Lembit Soobik
lembit.soobik at t-online.de
Fri Aug 26 10:43:52 CDT 2005
ok, but you changed the whole game. first game was select one out of 3 second game is select one out of two ----- Original Message ----- From: "Scott Marcus" <marcus at tsstech.com> To: "Discussion of Hardware and Software issues" <dba-tech at databaseadvisors.com> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 5:33 PM Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem >I have not changed the rules. In the original case your winning > percentage out of 1000 picks would be close to 66.66666...% > > Introducing the second person and their chances depends on if they have > prior knowledge. > > Scott Marcus > IT Programmer > TSS Technologies Inc. > www.tss.com > > > -----Original Message----- > From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com > [mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Lembit > Soobik > Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 11:24 AM > To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues > Subject: Re: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem > > I see what you mean, but thing is that you have changed the rules during > the > game. > now assume after you revealed the one non-winning door > a third person comes in > what are his chances to select the winning door from the two which are > left > over? > > Lembit > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Scott Marcus" <marcus at tsstech.com> > To: "Discussion of Hardware and Software issues" > <dba-tech at databaseadvisors.com> > Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 5:00 PM > Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem > > >> When you originally picked the door, you had a 1/3 chance that the > door >> was the winning door. If the host reveals a non-winning door that > isn't >> the door you picked, that door you picked still has only a 1/3 chance > of >> being correct. >> >> Lembit, lets play a game. Pick a number between 1 and 1,000,000. Only >> one number will be a winning number. After you pick your number, I'm >> gonna reveal 999,998 doors as non-winning doors so that only your door >> and one other door remains (of which one is the winning door). Are > your >> chances still 50/50? >> >> So really pick a number. I'll have a third party monitor the winning >> number so that no cheating can be involved. We'll do this 1000 times > and >> I bet you that if you switch doors that you will win way more than 50% >> of the time (it will be very close to if not 100% of the time). >> >> Scott Marcus >> IT Programmer >> TSS Technologies Inc. >> www.tss.com >> >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com >> [mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Lembit >> Soobik >> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 10:45 AM >> To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues >> Subject: Re: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem >> >> which leaves one winning and one non-winning door >> and since you do not know which one the winning door is, >> you have a 1 out of 2 chance. >> >> The host has simply changed the game from 1 out of 3 to 1 out of two >> the new situation is not dependent on your previous choice. >> >> how could your making a choice at the beginning change the situation >> after the >> 3rd door was removed? >> >> Lembit >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "Scott Marcus" <marcus at tsstech.com> >> To: "Discussion of Hardware and Software issues" >> <dba-tech at databaseadvisors.com> >> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 4:36 PM >> Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem >> >> >>> John, >>> >>> The problem was stated originally that the host revealed a > non-winning >>> door. >>> >>> Scott Marcus >>> IT Programmer >>> TSS Technologies Inc. >>> www.tss.com >>> _______________________________________________ >>> dba-Tech mailing list >>> dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com >>> http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech >>> Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com >>> >>> >>> -- >>> No virus found in this incoming message. >>> Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. >>> Version: 7.0.344 / Virus Database: 267.10.15/82 - Release Date: >> 25.08.2005 >>> >>> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> dba-Tech mailing list >> dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com >> http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech >> Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com >> _______________________________________________ >> dba-Tech mailing list >> dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com >> http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech >> Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com >> >> >> -- >> No virus found in this incoming message. >> Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. >> Version: 7.0.344 / Virus Database: 267.10.15/82 - Release Date: > 25.08.2005 >> >> > > _______________________________________________ > dba-Tech mailing list > dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com > http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech > Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com > _______________________________________________ > dba-Tech mailing list > dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com > http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech > Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com > > > -- > No virus found in this incoming message. > Checked by AVG Anti-Virus. > Version: 7.0.344 / Virus Database: 267.10.15/82 - Release Date: 25.08.2005 > >