[dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem

On 26 Aug 2005 at 11:02, Scott Marcus wrote:

> John,
> 
> The host's intentions have nothing to do with the math. The fact is that
> the host revealed a non-winning door. Therefore your odds of winning are
> 2/3 if you switch.
> 

The host's intentions are critical.

If he only ever opens a second door when you are on a winner,  your can 
only win by sticking.

If he only ever opens a second door when you are on a loser, you can only 
win by switching.

If he always opens a second door or always does so when you are wearing 
brown shoes,or have blue eyes or whatever,  you will win 2 out of 3 times 
by switching.


-- 
Stuart