[dba-Tech] The status of the browser

Hi Mark:

Those are a lot of interesting questions. I can not speak to what will be
but I can speak to what the trends are, whether the trends with continue in
the current direction and at current pace is for someone with a better
crystal ball than I have but the trends now are as follows:

1. A desktop is less important for deploying a standard set of business
applications than it was 10 years ago and I suspect that trend will
continue. Microsoft would have not deployed its Office products to the web
if it did not feel it had to.

2. With that particular trend the OS becomes less important and now there
are a number of excellent OSs emerging on the market. Android and Ubuntu
Linux (and even MAC-BSD) have become the standard bearers of this new
diversity. I.E. Microsoft has had to drop its desktops, on new computers to
less than $50.00...it has become less profitable and even computers like
Dell/IBM/HP/Sony/Fujitsu are starting to offer desktop choices like Android
and Ubuntu Linux, both Open Source products. 

3. Big companies like to be able to consolidate the business and the
simplest way to do it is to deploy their company specific applications to
the web. Now there is less reason to upgrade either remote hardware or
software, it requires less local support, better control and distribution,
updates in real time and centralized software upgrading, security,
centralized analysis and backups. There is no downside to this model... so
who cares what desktop is their attitude. (Upgrading sites is my business
and I can see it moving that way virtually 100 percent.)

4. The proliferation of iPads, iPhone and Cell phones with desktops are out
selling desktop type computer 3 to 1 and it been that way for over 3 years
and shows no signing of slowing down. Microsoft has not been able to produce
a creditable product to fill in that niche and by the time it does the
market will be set and saturated.

5. The Backends of most of these new systems are Linux based. Over 80
percent at last count and even Microsoft's excellent efforts in producing
more and better server products has apparently plateaued over the last 5
years. Linux based servers are so strong and reliable in this area, that big
companies have stayed with what they know and trust...in addition there are
so many excellent Linux/Unix based tools for managing large Networks... This
has all lent itself toward web based server support.

6. Companies have been less inclined to support a particular proprietary OS
and related products as a mistake in selection as related to scalability can
be very expensive. Web based applications scale easily but desktop products
do not or end up costing. Relate the cost of 1000 new Windows desktops to
that of a new Website deployed to 1000 clients with a dozen different
desktop and browser variants... no challenge.

7. Microsoft has continued to cut itself short when it comes to the
internet. First with not embracing the new standards, like HTML5 and
building it own proprietary browser which ends up costing in development
time and money to the business world. MS's browser has move from it 70
percent of the market to 30 percent of the market share and it continues to
drop. Rather than try to make their browser product more flexible, they have
added a product like SilverLight (too little and too late as far as I can
see) and are now attempting to bind their browser to the Windows desktop.
I.e. having the browser graphics connected to local hardware. Microsoft is
no longer in a command position, in the computer world and it will have to
accept that reality.

8. As mentioned before Microsoft is cutting itself off from the Internet
market by either being slow to follow market trends or stubbornly sticking
to its own proprietary products. This all will in turn results is less
desktop sales and more over-all browser implementation driven by very nimble
and aggressive competition. To that end there are some positive signs from
Microsoft as they have been actively pursuing Open Source projects which
should keep them connected to the pulse computing trends.

As an aside, about graphics products there are a few misconceptions. The
smaller Adobe graphics products are deployed to the desktop and mostly
Windows. As soon as you step up to the large graphic system like ArcInfo,
InterGraph, AutoDesk, Professional StudioMax, XSI, and the Architectural,
Engineering and Animation graphics programs you are in the UNIX and Linux
world. 

In addition, the only thing that is holding back the internet, from
completely swamping all products is its old and relatively slow
infrastructure...but it will not be like that forever...fiber optic cabling
is on its way.      

I have said much more than I had initially planned but once started it was
hard to leave out the specific point and not explain that point. (I will
also be using this as part of a speech I will be giving to a group of
investmentor in a couple of weeks.) 

Regards
Jim