[dba-Tech] The state of the web

Hans-Christian Andersen hans.andersen at phulse.com
Thu Dec 6 08:20:53 CST 2012


> But 30% mobile market share in three-five years seems to be almost guaranteed to MS...

I'm just curious as to how 30% is almost guaranteed? Where does this number come from? The current market share is in the low single digits and not growing all that much.

> And as you say "Microsoft is doing fantastic job with Xbox" so adapting that experience to MS mobile, using mobile devices together with Xbox should make MS positions even stronger?

This is unlikely. The Xbox had a "killer app" in the form of Halo and also was (and still is) way ahead of the competition with Xbox Live. This is what helped them succeed from being the new kid on the block among established heavy weights and they are smartly building on top of that success with great new features.

I don't see anything like that for the Windows Phone platform. Why would anyone adopt it? Everyone else is using iPhones and Android phones, who both seem to be quite satisfied with their platforms. They both have much larger app stores and higher profile apps. It needs to be something more than simply a few bells and whistles, like integrating it with the Xbox. It would be a nice touch, but the Xbox has only ever sold 70 million units in total (since 2005). Contrast that with 45 million iPhone 5's to be sold by the end of this year (and it was released this September). With numbers like that, you can see that its not really going to be a significant selling point for most consumers.

To add to that, some people have a strong loyalty to Microsoft, such as yourself, but most do not. Most Windows users use Windows because that is what they are accustomed to it and because it is shipped on every computer by default anyways - not because that they feel strongly for the Microsoft brand nor because they make a conscious decision as a consumer that Windows is the best computer OS compared to the alternatives. In other words, they continue to succeed here by sheer force of monopoly.

However, they are in a different position with Windows Phone, which is in such a weak position at the moment. They really need that killer app/feature/innovation to draw peoples attention and I'm not aware of anything. They need an "Angry Birds" exclusive to WP8 or something to that effect.

Microsoft isn't going to grab a 30% market share simply by existing.

- Hans


On 2012-12-06, at 3:10 AM, Salakhetdinov Shamil <mcp2004 at mail.ru> wrote:

> Hi Hans and Jim --
> 
> Have you seen that stats:
> 
> http://techcrunch.com/2012/12/04/analyst-just-25-developers-grabbed-50-of-app-revenues-on-u-s-app-store-google-play-last-month-earning-60m-between-them/
> 
> ?
> 
> AFAIS mobile apps are still mainly game apps and (IMO) WinPhone 7.5/8 and Windows RT/Surface do still have good chances to become widely used in business apps.
> We will see. But 30% mobile market share in three-five years seems to be almost guaranteed to MS...
> And as you say "Microsoft is doing fantastic job with Xbox" so adapting that experience to MS mobile, using mobile devices together with Xbox should make MS positions even stronger? 
> 
> Thank you.
> 
> -- Shamil
> 
> Среда,  5 декабря 2012, 22:12  от Hans-Christian Andersen <hans.andersen at phulse.com>:
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> In my opinion, I think Microsoft has yet farther to fall before they make a come back. I don't see anything particularly ground breaking coming from them, only them catching up with Android/iOS and trying to out-Apple Apple themselves in various ways (ie. Microsoft Store). But it doesn't really suit them. Just makes them look awkward.
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> There are a few exceptions, of course. For instance, Microsoft is doing a fantastic job with their Xbox console in transforming it into a home entertainment centre, so kudos to them about that. But, I can't help but wonder whether the Xbox's successes are a result of being somewhat partitioned from all the other warring fiefdoms that exist at Microsoft (Windows, MS Office, etc) and probably a more hands-off approach from Steve Ballmer.
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> I really think Microsoft just needs to get rid of Ballmer. He's an ineffective CEO in this new era and it shows. Also, from what I hear, the MS Office team has just got way too much say over everyone else.
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> Hans
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> On 2012-12-05, at 6:39 PM, Jim Lawrence <accessd at shaw.ca> wrote:
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>> I think you are very correct.
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>> The following graph says it all and the main reason for Microsoft's sudden
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>> launch forward with a totally new environment, Win8.
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>> http://tinyurl.com/d4udbk2
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>> It clearly shows that iOS and particularly Android, has wiped out
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>> Microsoft's decade of dominance, in which MS held about 90 to 95 percent of
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>> the personal computer market but in three short years, they lost over 50
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>> percent of their market share.
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>> Whether this trend will continue unchallenged or whether MS will rise to the
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>> challenge is still a question. The next three years will say it all, success
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>> or oblivion. Periods like this are always best as there is always a lot of
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>> good innovation from all sectors of computing market.
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>> At this time, I think it is best for developers to keep away from making any
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>> firm commitments to any particular hardware and OS platforms and rather
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>> stick to Open Source and Open Standard products where at all possible.
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>> 
>> Jim
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>> <<< skipped >>>
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