[dba-Tech] Was: World Series Question, not Coin Toss Question

It looks elegant and very logical.

Jim

-----Original Message-----
From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
[mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Stuart McLachlan
Sent: Monday, January 14, 2013 11:03 PM
To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues
Subject: Re: [dba-Tech] Was: World Series Question, not Coin Toss Question

Bzzt!.   

I'm wrong but my calculations were correct.

As I said originally, and showed in the spreadsheet,  there are indeed only
35 possible 
outcomes of which Arthur wins 20 and I win 15.  

But they are not all equally likely!  So the probabilty is not  43%  (15/35)

Arthur is the correct, the probabililty is indeed about 34% when the
likelihood of the various 
outcomes is taken into consideration.

However, he is still wrong about the total number of possible outcomes :-)


-- 
Stuart

On 15 Jan 2013 at 16:16, Stuart McLachlan wrote:

> The math is complex.  It is far simpler to solve it iteratively as a
binary tree.
> 
> Here it is graphically:
> http://camcopng.com/arthurcointoss.xls
> 
> -- 
> Stuart
> 
> On 14 Jan 2013 at 19:38, Jim Lawrence wrote:
> 
> > You guys show us the math. ;-)
> > 
> > Jim
> > 
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
> > [mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Arthur
Fuller
> > Sent: Monday, January 14, 2013 7:36 PM
> > To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues
> > Subject: Re: [dba-Tech] Was: World Series Question, not Coin Toss
Question
> > 
> > According to my calculations you are incorrect. Your estimate of the
total
> > outcomes is way wrong.
> > 
> > A.
> > 
> > 
> > On Mon, Jan 14, 2013 at 10:29 PM, Stuart McLachlan
> > <stuart at lexacorp.com.pg>wrote:
> > 
> > >
> > > Probablilty = 0.4285714285714286
> > >
> > > Odds =  3:4
> > >
> > > 15 wins out of 35 possible outcomes.
> > >
> > > --
> > > Stuart
> > > pecially of the future.
> > >
> >   -- Niels Bohr
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> 
> 
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