[AccessD] So Cal fires perspective

Charlotte Foust cfoust at infostatsystems.com
Thu Oct 25 09:24:47 CDT 2007


Thanks, Andy.  It was time for that.

Charlotte Foust 

-----Original Message-----
From: accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
[mailto:accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Andy Lacey
Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2007 7:15 AM
To: Access Developers discussion and problem solving
Subject: Re: [AccessD] So Cal fires perspective

Sorry folks. I'm really interested in the discussion but with my mod's
hat on I have to say that the Access content is a little on the low
side. Please take this to OT if you want to continue.

--
Andy Lacey
http://www.minstersystems.co.uk


--------- Original Message --------
From: "Access Developers discussion and problem solving"
<accessd at databaseadvisors.com>
To: "accessd at databaseadvisors.com" <accessd at databaseadvisors.com>
Subject: Re: [AccessD] So Cal fires perspective
Date: 25/10/07 13:59


John,

This is an example of the kind of jumping to extremes that causes the
toothpaste and nailclippers problem. I'm not saying that people should
stand in the middle of an inferno with a garden hose!!! If your house
has any significant fire going, get out. If your neighborhood is a
firestorm, get out. If you can't breathe, get out. But in many cases,
homes are lost (AND infernos grew into being) simply because no one was
there to hold back small incipient fires, spread by few embers blowing.
Certainly some people stay far too long and sometimes die--that is an
error in judgment. But so is calling everyone with a garden hose an
idiot. Situations vary, but the vast majority were FAR from any danger
(much less near an inferno).

"Evacuating a million people is the exact right thing to do rather than
lose lives." Based on what? Look at the map I linked. Why not force 2
million from their non-endangered homes? Why not the whole county? Note
that of the
5 people who died, there was one "idiot" (tried to save his home), and 4
old people who died as a result of the needless upheaval. Both extremes
have costs.

What was ACTUALLY needed was water drops (like they had in LA from the
beginning), and many more reserve firemen. This exact same thing
happened just 4 years ago, and it's certain to happen again soon. It
seems they spent all their money on the database to evac the world, and
none training volunteer/reserve firemen. There's no sense in that.

Aside from the overreaction in forcing evacuations, and the vilifying of
people who would reasonably try to protect their home (now outlawed),
the real problem is that the groupthink that carries these overreactions
eagerly buries the vast lack of actually addressing the real problems.
Way too much reactionary evacuating, and way too little putting out
fires. There's wasn't even anyone left to piece together a picture of
where the fires were raging/threatening! Info is still very sketchy.

Greg


------------------------------

Message: 11
Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2007 17:14:10 -0400
From: "jwcolby" <jwcolby at colbyconsulting.com>

....
The shake shingle roofs which were quite common on the houses built in
the 70s and 80s will catch fire from embers landing on the roofs. If
these shingles are old and untreated they will catch fairly rapidly and
once a patch of roof is engulfed no garden hose will put it out. A fully
engulfed home can and will catch the house next door and in fact entire
neighborhoods can go very quickly. People caught in those situations can
quite easily die. Fires blown by high winds can "jump" hundreds of yards
or even miles (in brush). In fact this is exactly how they jump the
freeways which you would think would act as natural firebreaks and
create natural boundaries; They can but all too often do not because of
the winds. Thus a single house on fire can "cause" another house
hundreds of yards away to burn.

Watch the TV. A full fire crew CANNOT EXTINGUISH a fully engulfed home
fire with entire engines available to them, all they can do is control
and wet down the adjacent buildings to prevent the spread.

Trained firemen die every year (encased in full on fire gear) because
they get caught in the middle of a fire when the fire jumps over them
and catches the brush around them. In fact firemen fighting brush fires
are often provided "solar blankets" which can SOMETIMES save their lives
by allowing them to hide under these blankets if they do get caught in a
fire.

I have never been inside of a real live burning structure but I have
done the training with air packs and fire suits, going into training
buildings with real fires (and LOTS of smoke) and even with suits
designed to withstand 600 degree heat it is HOT and you can't see 2
inches in front of your face. Unprotected civilians in a fully engulfed
burning neighborhood will die, if not from the flames and heat, then
from smoke inhalation or even heart attacks.

Evacuating a million people is the exact right thing to do rather than
lose lives. Even worse is to lose firefighters trying to rescue the
idiots that want to try and save their homes and get caught behind the
fire line. A single house burning is nothing to mess with, a brush fire
or an entire burning neighborhood whipped up by high winds can turn
deadly in seconds, even for trained professionals.

It is easy to criticize the effects of evacuations but in fact people
die from these fires every year because they refuse to leave and try to
save their home with garden hoses. Personally I don't mind if idiots die
(cleansing the gene pool) but I object to firefighters dying trying to
rescue the idiots.

John W. Colby
Colby Consulting
www.ColbyConsulting.com

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