[AccessD] So Cal fires perspective

jwcolby jwcolby at colbyconsulting.com
Thu Oct 25 10:10:40 CDT 2007


Sorry Andy, I pressed send and came back to see this.  

8-( 


John W. Colby
Colby Consulting
www.ColbyConsulting.com 
-----Original Message-----
From: accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
[mailto:accessd-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Andy Lacey
Sent: Thursday, October 25, 2007 10:15 AM
To: Access Developers discussion and problem solving
Subject: Re: [AccessD] So Cal fires perspective

Sorry folks. I'm really interested in the discussion but with my mod's hat
on I have to say that the Access content is a little on the low side. Please
take this to OT if you want to continue.

--
Andy Lacey
http://www.minstersystems.co.uk


--------- Original Message --------
From: "Access Developers discussion and problem solving"
<accessd at databaseadvisors.com>
To: "accessd at databaseadvisors.com" <accessd at databaseadvisors.com>
Subject: Re: [AccessD] So Cal fires perspective
Date: 25/10/07 13:59


John,

This is an example of the kind of jumping to extremes that causes the
toothpaste and nailclippers problem. I'm not saying that people should stand
in the middle of an inferno with a garden hose!!! If your house has any
significant fire going, get out. If your neighborhood is a firestorm, get
out. If you can't breathe, get out. But in many cases, homes are lost (AND
infernos grew into being) simply because no one was there to hold back small
incipient fires, spread by few embers blowing. Certainly some people stay
far too long and sometimes die--that is an error in judgment. But so is
calling everyone with a garden hose an idiot. Situations vary, but the vast
majority were FAR from any danger (much less near an inferno).

"Evacuating a million people is the exact right thing to do rather than lose
lives." Based on what? Look at the map I linked. Why not force 2 million
from their non-endangered homes? Why not the whole county? Note that of the
5 people who died, there was one "idiot" (tried to save his home), and 4 old
people who died as a result of the needless upheaval. Both extremes have
costs.

What was ACTUALLY needed was water drops (like they had in LA from the
beginning), and many more reserve firemen. This exact same thing happened
just 4 years ago, and it's certain to happen again soon. It seems they spent
all their money on the database to evac the world, and none training
volunteer/reserve firemen. There's no sense in that.

Aside from the overreaction in forcing evacuations, and the vilifying of
people who would reasonably try to protect their home (now outlawed), the
real problem is that the groupthink that carries these overreactions eagerly
buries the vast lack of actually addressing the real problems. Way too much
reactionary evacuating, and way too little putting out fires. There's wasn't
even anyone left to piece together a picture of where the fires were
raging/threatening! Info is still very sketchy.

Greg


------------------------------

Message: 11
Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2007 17:14:10 -0400
From: "jwcolby" <jwcolby at colbyconsulting.com>

....
The shake shingle roofs which were quite common on the houses built in the
70s and 80s will catch fire from embers landing on the roofs. If these
shingles are old and untreated they will catch fairly rapidly and once a
patch of roof is engulfed no garden hose will put it out. A fully engulfed
home can and will catch the house next door and in fact entire neighborhoods
can go very quickly. People caught in those situations can quite easily die.
Fires blown by high winds can "jump" hundreds of yards or even miles (in
brush). In fact this is exactly how they jump the freeways which you would
think would act as natural firebreaks and create natural boundaries; They
can but all too often do not because of the winds. Thus a single house on
fire can "cause" another house hundreds of yards away to burn.

Watch the TV. A full fire crew CANNOT EXTINGUISH a fully engulfed home fire
with entire engines available to them, all they can do is control and wet
down the adjacent buildings to prevent the spread.

Trained firemen die every year (encased in full on fire gear) because they
get caught in the middle of a fire when the fire jumps over them and catches
the brush around them. In fact firemen fighting brush fires are often
provided "solar blankets" which can SOMETIMES save their lives by allowing
them to hide under these blankets if they do get caught in a fire.

I have never been inside of a real live burning structure but I have done
the training with air packs and fire suits, going into training buildings
with real fires (and LOTS of smoke) and even with suits designed to
withstand 600 degree heat it is HOT and you can't see 2 inches in front of
your face. Unprotected civilians in a fully engulfed burning neighborhood
will die, if not from the flames and heat, then from smoke inhalation or
even heart attacks.

Evacuating a million people is the exact right thing to do rather than lose
lives. Even worse is to lose firefighters trying to rescue the idiots that
want to try and save their homes and get caught behind the fire line. A
single house burning is nothing to mess with, a brush fire or an entire
burning neighborhood whipped up by high winds can turn deadly in seconds,
even for trained professionals.

It is easy to criticize the effects of evacuations but in fact people die
from these fires every year because they refuse to leave and try to save
their home with garden hoses. Personally I don't mind if idiots die
(cleansing the gene pool) but I object to firefighters dying trying to
rescue the idiots.

John W. Colby
Colby Consulting
www.ColbyConsulting.com

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