Andy Lacey
andy at minstersystems.co.uk
Fri Aug 26 01:55:19 CDT 2005
There is a wonderful novel called "The Curious Incident Of The Dog In The Night-Time" by Mark Haddon. It's about a young boy with Asperger's Syndrome. I tell you this because one chapter comprises his musings on the Monty Hall problem, with a great explantion that even I can understand. And yes you should change. And do read that book. It's brilliant. -- Andy Lacey http://www.minstersystems.co.uk > -----Original Message----- > From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com > [mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of > Erwin Craps - IT Helps > Sent: 26 August 2005 07:06 > To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues > Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem > > > Ok found it. > Its called the Monty Hall rule. > I programmed it in the boxes version (there are many version > of this rule). My code was programmed in VB6 but its pretty > simple and will probably work straigt away in VBA to. > > Run the MontyHall sub adding the number of iterations. > As usual statistics are more accurate with larger numbers. > But you alreay see it with 10 iterations. > > > Here's the code. > ###BEGIN OF CODE### > Sub MontyHall(Iterations As Long) > Dim Success As Integer > Dim Boxes(3) As Boolean > Dim Choosen As Integer > Dim Unvealed As Integer > Dim NoChangeSuccess As Long > Dim ChangeSuccess As Long > Dim NoChangeTotal As Long > Dim ChangeTotal As Long > Dim NotChoosen As Integer > > Dim I As Integer, Iteration As Long > > For Iteration = 1 To Iterations > NoChangeSuccess = 0 > ChangeSuccess = 0 > > For I = 1 To 100 > Erase Boxes > > 'Set money in box > Randomize > Boxes(Int((3 * Rnd) + 1)) = True > > 'I'm Choosing a box > Randomize > Choosen = Int((3 * Rnd) + 1) > > > 'Unveale 1 empty box > Unvealed = Int((3 * Rnd) + 1) > Do Until Unvealed <> Choosen > Randomize > Unvealed = Int((3 * Rnd) + 1) > Loop > If Boxes(Unvealed) = True Then Unvealed = 6 - Choosen > - Unvealed > > > 'Check for values > NotChoosen = 6 - Choosen - Unvealed > If Boxes(Choosen) = True Then NoChangeSuccess = > NoChangeSuccess > + 1 > If Boxes(NotChoosen) = True Then ChangeSuccess = > ChangeSuccess + 1 > > Next I > > 'Remove Remark on folowing line for detailed results > 'Debug.Print "Iteration:" & Format(Iteration, "00#") & " > Result Choosen Box:" & NoChangeSuccess & " Other box:" & ChangeSuccess > > 'Set totals > NoChangeTotal = NoChangeTotal + NoChangeSuccess > ChangeTotal = ChangeTotal + ChangeSuccess > > > Next Iteration > > Debug.Print "Iterationtotals:" & " Result Choosen Box:" & > NoChangeTotal / Iterations & "% Other box:" & ChangeTotal / > Iterations & "%" > > End Sub > ###END OF CODE### > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com > [mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of > Erwin Craps > - IT Helps > Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 7:54 AM > To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues > Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem > > Ha, seen this a couple of years ago but with dead row > prisoners... I written an VBA program to take this > statistical weirdness to the test AND IT IS TRUE > > I try if I can find the program... > > > -----Original Message----- > From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com > [mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of > Josh McFarlane > Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 7:22 AM > To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues > Subject: Re: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem > > Well, that one is a little bit more simple. > > Barrel A, Barrel B, and Barrel C > Fruit - Apples -- Oranges > > If he pulls Apples out of Barrel A, you apply Apples to > Barrel A, Oranges to Barrel B and Fruit to Barrel C, just a > matter of making sure the same label doesn't end up on the same spot. > > In the case of the game show problem however, you start out > with 3 choices to resolve the situation: > > 2 Losses > 1 Win > > No matter what you choose, the situation is simplified to two choices: > > 1 Loss > 1 Win > > The other properties of the choice don't change, as there > will always be 1 win and 1 loss. Nothing says either or will > be more probable than the other, so you should end up with a > 50/50 chance. > > On 8/25/05, MartyConnelly <martyconnelly at shaw.ca> wrote: > > Well this is a microsoft interview question You have three barrels > > labelled oranges, apples and mixed fruit The barrels have all been > > mislabelled, Someone pulls out a fruit from a barrel and > tells you it > > is an apple your job is to relabel the barrels correctly. > > > > Stuart McLachlan wrote: > > > > >On 25 Aug 2005 at 19:52, Kathryn Bassett wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > >>I know the answer is to stick with original choice, but I can't > remember the logistics of why. > > >> > > >>-- > > >> > > >> > > >Bzzzt! > > > > > >Next? > > > > > ><g> > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > Marty Connelly > > Victoria, B.C. > > Canada > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > dba-Tech mailing list > > dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com > > http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech > > Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com > > > > > -- > Darsant Silverstring > > "Peace cannot be kept by force. It can only be achieved by > understanding." -Albert Einstein > _______________________________________________ > dba-Tech mailing list > dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com > http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech > Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com > _______________________________________________ > dba-Tech mailing list > dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com > http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech > Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com > _______________________________________________ > dba-Tech mailing list > dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com > http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech > Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com > >