[dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem

You should always switch because statistically you had a 1/3 chance of
picking the correct door. You have a 2/3 chance of being right by
switching.

To make this clearer, you could say that there are a million doors with
only one grand prize. I would then take away all the wrong doors except
yours and one other door. Now which would you choose?

Scott Marcus
IT Programmer
TSS Technologies Inc.
www.tss.com


-----Original Message-----
From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
[mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Arthur
Fuller
Sent: Thursday, August 25, 2005 8:04 PM
To: 'Discussion of Hardware and Software issues'
Subject: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem

I am the host of a TV program and you are the guest. This is the deal:
there
are 3 doors. Behind one of them is $100 million. Behind the other two
are a
dead catfish and a dead pickerel respectively. I invite you to select a
door. You choose any one of the three: call it x I open another door,
and
say, Had you selected door y, you would have won a dead catfish. Now,
would
you like to stick with your original choice or switch to the other door?
Does it matter? If not, why not? If so, why so?
There is a clear answer to this problem. Who is going to be the first to
come up with it?
Arthur


_______________________________________________
dba-Tech mailing list
dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com
http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech
Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com