[dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem

When you originally picked the door, you had a 1/3 chance that the door
was the winning door. If the host reveals a non-winning door that isn't
the door you picked, that door you picked still has only a 1/3 chance of
being correct.

Lembit, lets play a game. Pick a number between 1 and 1,000,000. Only
one number will be a winning number. After you pick your number, I'm
gonna reveal 999,998 doors as non-winning doors so that only your door
and one other door remains (of which one is the winning door). Are your
chances still 50/50?

So really pick a number. I'll have a third party monitor the winning
number so that no cheating can be involved. We'll do this 1000 times and
I bet you that if you switch doors that you will win way more than 50%
of the time (it will be very close to if not 100% of the time).

Scott Marcus
IT Programmer
TSS Technologies Inc.
www.tss.com


-----Original Message-----
From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
[mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Lembit
Soobik
Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 10:45 AM
To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues
Subject: Re: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem

which leaves one winning and one non-winning door
and since you do not know which one the winning door is,
you have a 1 out of 2 chance.

The host has simply changed the game from 1 out of 3 to 1 out of two
the new situation is not dependent on your previous choice.

how could your making a choice at the beginning change the situation
after the 
3rd door was removed?

Lembit

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Scott Marcus" <marcus at tsstech.com>
To: "Discussion of Hardware and Software issues"
<dba-tech at databaseadvisors.com>
Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 4:36 PM
Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem


> John,
>
> The problem was stated originally that the host revealed a non-winning
> door.
>
> Scott Marcus
> IT Programmer
> TSS Technologies Inc.
> www.tss.com
> _______________________________________________
> dba-Tech mailing list
> dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com
> http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech
> Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com
>
>
> -- 
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> 

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