[dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem

I see what you mean, but thing is that you have changed the rules during the 
game.
now assume after you revealed the one non-winning door
a third person comes in
what are his chances to select the winning door from the two which are left 
over?

Lembit

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Scott Marcus" <marcus at tsstech.com>
To: "Discussion of Hardware and Software issues" <dba-tech at databaseadvisors.com>
Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 5:00 PM
Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem


> When you originally picked the door, you had a 1/3 chance that the door
> was the winning door. If the host reveals a non-winning door that isn't
> the door you picked, that door you picked still has only a 1/3 chance of
> being correct.
>
> Lembit, lets play a game. Pick a number between 1 and 1,000,000. Only
> one number will be a winning number. After you pick your number, I'm
> gonna reveal 999,998 doors as non-winning doors so that only your door
> and one other door remains (of which one is the winning door). Are your
> chances still 50/50?
>
> So really pick a number. I'll have a third party monitor the winning
> number so that no cheating can be involved. We'll do this 1000 times and
> I bet you that if you switch doors that you will win way more than 50%
> of the time (it will be very close to if not 100% of the time).
>
> Scott Marcus
> IT Programmer
> TSS Technologies Inc.
> www.tss.com
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com
> [mailto:dba-tech-bounces at databaseadvisors.com] On Behalf Of Lembit
> Soobik
> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 10:45 AM
> To: Discussion of Hardware and Software issues
> Subject: Re: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem
>
> which leaves one winning and one non-winning door
> and since you do not know which one the winning door is,
> you have a 1 out of 2 chance.
>
> The host has simply changed the game from 1 out of 3 to 1 out of two
> the new situation is not dependent on your previous choice.
>
> how could your making a choice at the beginning change the situation
> after the
> 3rd door was removed?
>
> Lembit
>
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Scott Marcus" <marcus at tsstech.com>
> To: "Discussion of Hardware and Software issues"
> <dba-tech at databaseadvisors.com>
> Sent: Friday, August 26, 2005 4:36 PM
> Subject: RE: [dba-Tech] The Three Doors Problem
>
>
>> John,
>>
>> The problem was stated originally that the host revealed a non-winning
>> door.
>>
>> Scott Marcus
>> IT Programmer
>> TSS Technologies Inc.
>> www.tss.com
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