Hans-Christian Andersen
hans.andersen at phulse.com
Thu Dec 6 16:27:23 CST 2012
No worries. I don't even know what the purpose of having institutions like Gartner and IDC concoct such long term predictions. I suppose it makes for nice headlines in news reports. Aside from that, they are next to pointless, often misleading and not a reliable source. > I meant both, tablets and smartphones, let's for MS Windows set that as MS Windows Phones 7.5, 8, ... and Windows RT but not a "transformer MS Windows tablet" able to run full scale Windows 8.... Then, in that case, I still think 30% is a bit hopeful based on current sales figures. All accounts so far has been that sales haven't been as high as expected... or "modest", in Ballmers words. I certainly don't know anyone, who has expressed any interest in the Surface tablet, nor do I know anyone with a Windows Phone, nor have I seen any interest in any social news websites I follow. This contrasts with whenever Apple releases a new phone or tablet - I always overhear that mentioned in conversation. This is perhaps not the biggest sample and is purely anecdotal (I'm certain it would be different experience if I lived in Seattle), but I will be very surprised if it's not somewhat a modest indication. Buon Fortuna Hans On 2012-12-06, at 12:36 PM, Salakhetdinov Shamil <mcp2004 at mail.ru> wrote: > Hi Hans -- > > <<< > But, I suppose even a broken clock is right twice a day. :) >>>> > Correct. :) > > <<< > Of course, Gartner has a very checkered past in making future predictions. After all, they once predicted 3 years ago that by 2012, the top 4 mobile phone platforms would be Android, Symbian Blackberry and then Windows Mobile. They didn't think that the iPhone would continue to grow in market share at the pace that it has. They also said Nokia would retain a 40% market share of smartphones (oops). >>>> > OOPS, I didn't know that - next time I will use more reliable "speculations source"... > > <<< > I was referring to mobile as Windows Phone, not tablets. >>>> > I meant both, tablets and smartphones, let's for MS Windows set that as MS Windows Phones 7.5, 8, ... and Windows RT but not a "transformer MS Windows tablet" able to run full scale Windows 8.... > > <<< > At the end of the day, it is fun to speculate, but none of us really know whats going to happen 3 years from now. >>>> > Yes :) - let's hope we will have opportunity to get back to that thread discussion in three years on year 2016 Eve to see what will happen then on mobile market... > > Thank you. > > -- Shamil > > Четверг, 6 декабря 2012, 12:05 от Hans-Christian Andersen <hans.andersen at phulse.com>: >> >> >> > > >> > > > >> Hi Shamil, >> > >> > I was referring to mobile as Windows Phone, not tablets. >> > >> > If we are talking about tablet market share, I wouldn't place a bet on anything by 2016 for the mere fact that the PC world is starting to blur the lines between the traditional laptop and a tablet. In fact, the article you linked to even made specific reference to "convertibles". So, by the time 2016 comes around, it will be a matter of how you interpret the numbers. It's a clever strategy of trying to shoehorn your way into relevance. >> > >> > Whether it will be a success, however, is pure speculation. But, if we are talking about pure tablets - a product with the characteristics of current iPads and Android tablets (a mobile computer that is primarily operated by touching the screen) - I would feel more confident in saying that I doubt Microsoft will be able to capture 30% of that market share by 2016. Not unless Windows 8 is a runaway success (which I don't think it will be) and consumers start wanting "tablets" rather than simply wanting iPads, as is currently the case. >> > >> > Of course, Gartner has a very checkered past in making future predictions. After all, they once predicted 3 years ago that by 2012, the top 4 mobile phone platforms would be Android, Symbian Blackberry and then Windows Mobile. They didn't think that the iPhone would continue to grow in market share at the pace that it has. They also said Nokia would retain a 40% market share of smartphones (oops). >> > >> > But, I suppose even a broken clock is right twice a day. :) >> > >> > At the end of the day, it is fun to speculate, but none of us really know whats going to happen 3 years from now. >> > >> > - Hans >> > >> > >> > >> > On 2012-12-06, at 9:18 AM, Salakhetdinov Shamil <mcp2004 at mail.ru> wrote: >> > >> >> Hi Hans -- >> >> >> >> <<< >> >> Microsoft isn't going to grab a 30% market share simply by existing. >> >>>>> >> >> >> >> That's Gartner: Windows 8 Tablets To Hold 39% Market Share In Businesses By 2016 >> >> >> >> http://microsoft-news.com/gartner-windows-8-tablets-to-hold-39-market-share-in-businesses-by-2016/ >> >> >> >> Let's hope we will have opportunity to refer to this discussion thread on year 2016 eve. >> >> >> >> Till then, >> >> >> >> Yours, >> >> >> >> Shamil :) >> >> >> >> >> >> Четверг, 6 декабря 2012, 6:20 от Hans-Christian Andersen <hans.andersen at phulse.com>: >> >> >> >>> >> >>> But 30% mobile market share in three-five years seems to be almost guaranteed to MS... >> >>> >> >>> >> >> I'm just curious as to how 30% is almost guaranteed? Where does this number come from? The current market share is in the low single digits and not growing all that much. >> >>> >> >>> >> >>> And as you say "Microsoft is doing fantastic job with Xbox" so adapting that experience to MS mobile, using mobile devices together with Xbox should make MS positions even stronger? >> >>> >> >>> >> >> This is unlikely. The Xbox had a "killer app" in the form of Halo and also was (and still is) way ahead of the competition with Xbox Live. This is what helped them succeed from being the new kid on the block among established heavy weights and they are smartly building on top of that success with great new features. >> >>> >> >>> >> >> I don't see anything like that for the Windows Phone platform. Why would anyone adopt it? Everyone else is using iPhones and Android phones, who both seem to be quite satisfied with their platforms. They both have much larger app stores and higher profile apps. It needs to be something more than simply a few bells and whistles, like integrating it with the Xbox. It would be a nice touch, but the Xbox has only ever sold 70 million units in total (since 2005). Contrast that with 45 million iPhone 5's to be sold by the end of this year (and it was released this September). With numbers like that, you can see that its not really going to be a significant selling point for most consumers. >> >>> >> >>> >> >> To add to that, some people have a strong loyalty to Microsoft, such as yourself, but most do not. Most Windows users use Windows because that is what they are accustomed to it and because it is shipped on every computer by default anyways - not because that they feel strongly for the Microsoft brand nor because they make a conscious decision as a consumer that Windows is the best computer OS compared to the alternatives. In other words, they continue to succeed here by sheer force of monopoly. >> >>> >> >>> >> >> However, they are in a different position with Windows Phone, which is in such a weak position at the moment. They really need that killer app/feature/innovation to draw peoples attention and I'm not aware of anything. They need an "Angry Birds" exclusive to WP8 or something to that effect. >> >>> >> >>> >> >> Microsoft isn't going to grab a 30% market share simply by existing. >> >>> >> >>> >> >> - Hans >> >>> <<< skipped >>> >> >> >> >>> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> >> dba-Tech mailing list >> >> dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com >> >> http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech >> >> Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com >> > >> > >> > _______________________________________________ >> > dba-Tech mailing list >> >> dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com >> >> http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech >> > Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com >> >> > > > > > >> > > _______________________________________________ > dba-Tech mailing list > dba-Tech at databaseadvisors.com > http://databaseadvisors.com/mailman/listinfo/dba-tech > Website: http://www.databaseadvisors.com